This article has been out for long. Good that it has got published again in a different avtar. Only thing I can note that it is "drifting farther away". First iit was 2015 but now it is corrected to 2050. Infact this article appeared in Oct 2003, when I had just put in my papers in India - my boss happened to show me this article and scoffed at my idea of leaving India for Canada.

The superpower status has so many riders to it. One of the most important things it mentions is " Government interference in business." Second it does not take into account " transparency and Black / parallel economy" . read second last para- Avoid major crises..

Computerisation has brought some changes and speed into the system but imagine social justice and the law and order situation in India. It takes atleast 10- 15 years to have cases resolved and a lot is lost in the meantime.

I could have written a lot but it just doesn't make any sense writing and wasting time.

I wish the Author and the people who believe in it The Best in all their future endevaours.

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What goes around comes around...
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A CANADIAN INDIAN

If you consider realities on ground then this article is a contradiction.

How about per capita GDP will it increase too.

Today India and Canada have same Electricity Production about 500 Mega watt . But in Cnada this power is used by 30 million people and in India by 1 billion people that is why we have power cuts. So even if the economy will increase by so much fold the same or more number of people will be sharing the resources so i dont think so per capita will go up much. by that time the overall GDP of canada willl have incresed a lot too.

India will only be shining perfectly if all the slums of Dharavi, kurla eastern suburbs etc diappear.

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"Ever dance with the devil in the pale moon light?"
"I always ask that of all my prey."
"I just like the sound of it."

Rank Order - Population:
3 India 1,065,070,607 July 2004 est.
35 Canada 32,507,874 July 2004 est.

Rank Order - GDP:
5 India $ 3,022,000,000,000 2003 est.
12 Canada $ 957,700,000,000 2003 est.

Rank Order - GDP - per capita:
12 Canada $ 29,700 2003 est.
152 India $ 2,900 2003 est

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"Ever dance with the devil in the pale moon light?"
"I always ask that of all my prey."
"I just like the sound of it."

Hi Garvo...The Boss,

Appreciate your efforts in providing some facts which throw light into the insights of India and other developing nations....

By 2050 India might be 3rd biggest economy but what about the following :

Poor infrastructure
Beggars, Underprivilged people
Unemployment
No social security, Health care
Caste system
Dowry
Corruption
Red Tapism

It will take India 25 Generations to have a standard of living comparable to the WEST. I am talking about India as a country - 1 billion population. 50 % people might be educated, well mannered and cultured..but wat about the remaining....half a billion ..1/10th of human race ???

Dreaming of bringing India at par with Western countries is like treating a Cancer patient who has 70% maligned body.

I have seen people praising Indians for their achivement....I agree there are successful people....Success means.. when 95 % of your population is educated and maintains good standard of living...That is biggest difference between WEST and developing countries.

G6 countries planned and built their country 5 generations back.... their forefathers were civilised 5 generations back...hence they are enjoying fruits of labor.......

If you go to the heart of India (villages)..you will know how bad the situation is......

Situation of India is like a Mother having 10 children explaining to a third person about their capabilities :

1 - Rocket scientist 2 - Neuro Surgeon 3 - CEO of Infosys
4 - Blind 5 - Leopar 6 - Polio infected 7 - Deaf 8 - Un employed 9 - Mentally disturbed 10 - widow with 4 children


WHAT'S THE POINT IN PRAISING 3 SUCCESSFUL CHILDREN WHEN REMAINING 7 ARE IN DIRE STRAITS.........How can a mother of 10 be happy in life when only 3 kids are successful and remaining 7 live in pathetic condition...

This is the real scenario with India....Few successful people doesn't make India comparable to WEST.

In my view upliftment of downtrodden 70% Indians is like asking aborigins to reach moon...........

May God Bless India..........


Deep

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U win some...lose some...everything is not justified in this world.

Hi deepcb,

While I do not disagree entirely with your views but I strongly question the conclusions you have arrived at in your post. Essentially you have stated that with the kind of baggage India is burdened with, it is difficult for her to move forward.
I have been following very closely the economic and scientific progress India has been making in recent years. In fact currently I am working on a 4 part article on "Why and How of Investing in India". The following is a brief summary of my findings related to the topic under discussion.
1. The demographic and capital accumulation and productivity growth models used by Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman of the Goldman Sachs in arriving at their conclusions are quite robust. In fact the assumptions made by these two authors are very conservative (Report no. 99: Dreaming with BRICs-Path to 2050). Based on recent reports and more accurate data, the economic pundits are speculating that the turn around may happen in 30 years and not 50 years as predicted by Goldman Sachs.
2. The primary reason for this optimism is due in large part to trained and English-literate population, independent judiciary, democracy, regulated banking system and stock exchanges, vibrant R&D institutions, internationally renowned educational institutions etc. Compare this to the situation in China, Russia and Brazil - the other three BRIC nations - then you would be convinced why the international community is going gaga over India.
3. The developed nations of today were not the same 50 years ago. One telltale sign of developing economies is gradual increase in contributions from the service sector to GDP. The economists have detected that happening in India because of the factors outlined in (2). The rise is so fast that it has forced them to revise their estimates from 50 to 30 years. The emerging service sectors (excluding the software sector) expected to be major players are financial, medical and scientific R&D. According to one survey these sectors are likely to contribute in excess of $400 b to GDP by 2010.
4. The future scenario for India could be like this: a very large population, a high GDP growth rate, a low per capita GDP that restricts the average living standard to far below that in the developed countries, a strong currency (it could be 1 Cd$=Rs10 in next few decades) etc.
5. The investment decisions are always forward-looking. In a recent survey of Canadian portfolio managers conducted by Morningstar.ca, the overwhelming majority of managers were bullish on India. The Newsweek of last week placed India at no. 1 spot as the most preferred destination for investments.
The confidence of global investment community is reflected in the following quote from Sonal Shah and Radha Chaurushiya's report for Center for American Progress-
"In the nine years from 1981 to 1990, net FDI to India was increasing minimally by $130 million per year. After the reforms, net FDI slowly accelerated, increasing by an average of $800 million per year from 1991 to 1995. Since 1996, it has expanded by an average of $2.9 billion per year." In 2003 the FDI was $7.5 b.
I can go on and on with more compelling facts and figures but I hope this would suffice to change your views to a little more positive side.

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Man's Best Friend

I BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY A WILDEST DREAM COME TRUE.
Reasons:-

1. Indian Democracy is not a true democracy & has double standards.
(Hypocracy)

2. Our Taxation System is ridiculous. Agriculture is not at all taxed where there is a huge profit for the rich farmers.

3. Our Babu culture and red tapism inherited from British Legacy still remains firm.

4. Tax Collections are spent on upkeep of Member of Parliements, Ministersand Govt Machinery.

5. Professionals like Doctors, Lawyers, Architects are amassing wealth.

6. Business Families are also amassing wealth.

7. We lack basic amenties such as drinking water, sanitation facilities, cloths, two square meals a day even today, shelter and access to healthcare.

8. We do not have proper Roads, Sufficient Power Generation, adequate irrigation facilities etc.

Therefore, I really doubt whether we are going to achieve it.

Regards,

MP