Long-term economic outlook of USA and beyond


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investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 19-11-08 22:55:46

Wall Street to be named Walmart Street



pratickm   
Member since: Feb 04
Posts: 2831
Location: Toronto

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 20-11-08 01:25:02

Quote:
Originally posted by investpro
Wall Street to be named Walmart Street

Um...soon to be Dollarama, I suspect


-----------------------------------------------------------------
"Mah deah, there is much more money to be made in the destruction of civilization than in building it up."

-- Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind"


investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 20-11-08 22:48:37

and then on to Penny Lane*

* A Beatles song



investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 22-11-08 15:13:54

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting a revolution in America , food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

"We're going to see the end of the retail Christmas....we're going to see a fundamental shift take place....putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree," said Celente, adding that the situation would be "worse than the great depression".

" America 's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for," said Celente, noting that people's refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest," and that, "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class."

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America .

"There will be a revolution in this country," he said. "It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."

"The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."

"It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people's minds weren't wrecked on all these modern drugs - over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody's comprehension."

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente's accuracy as a trend forecaster.

"When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."
- CNN Headline News

"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right."
- USA Today

"There's not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he's talking about."
- CNBC

"Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider Gerald Celente and the Trends Research Institute."
- The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Mr. Celente tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate clients."
- The New York Times

"Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority."
- 48 Hours, CBS News

"Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing."
- The Detroit News

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, 'green marketing,' and the boom in gourmet coffees."
- Chicago Tribune

"The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture."
- The Los Angeles Times

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente."
- New York Post

So there you have it - hardly a nutjob conspiracy theorist blowhard now is he? The price of not heeding his warnings will be far greater than the cost of preparing for the future now. Storable food and gold are two good places to make a start.




brown_bear   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 542
Location: Somewhere in dreamland

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 22-11-08 16:38:17

Here is rebuttal from Dan Tynan, a journalist and television and radio commentator:

Dan Tynan
Culture Crash

November 15, 2008 - 1:24 P.M.
Today's forecast: Gloom followed by increasing doom

Don't look now, but the sky is falling.

At least it is if you believe Gerald Celente, who's making headlines today across the blogosphere with some real downer predictions. By 2012, the CEO of the Trends Research Institute says we'll be facing food riots, tax revolts, the end of Christmas, and a return to the Great Depression.

“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”

You think maybe this the guy owns stock in companies that make Prozac, Paxil, and Zoloft?

Fox News [video] and wingnut sites like Alex Jones' Infowars, desperate to blame Obama for things he hasn't done yet, pounced on Celente's gloom-and-doom prognostications like a Doberman on a rump roast.

After all, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, the Asian currency crisis of 1997 and the subprime mortgage collapse.

Of course, that's not all Celente has predicted. I looked at some forecasts Celente made roughly ten years ago in his book, 'Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century,' excerpted by Psychology Today in February 1997. Here are some of the lowlights.

Voluntary simplicity, once merely a counterculture ideal, will finally become a reality in the twenty-first century. ....Moderation, self-discipline, and spiritual growth will be the personal goals of the future, not material accumulation.

Such a stunningly accurate description of the Bush years.... NOT. Apparently Celente missed the boom in SUV sales (at least until gas hit $4 a gallon). The good news: He's got another 92 years for this one to come true.

The trend to convert lawns into gardens will have a significant impact not only on the way we eat but also on how we live and feel. ....Billions of dollars formerly spent on lawn care will either be saved or re-deployed into producing fresh food.

I was just thinking that as I waded through the succotash on my front lawn.... Just kidding. Do you know anyone who's farming on their front lawn? Home lawn care products and services have grown (ahem) at a steady rate throughout this decade.

Instead of being banished to nursing homes or retirement communities, large numbers of retirees... will move in with their adult children.

The US nursing home population actually increased by about 70,000 from 2001 to 2007, according to a survey by UCSF.

The videophone, meanwhile, will keep us in touch with faraway relatives. ...long-distance communication will be more like television.

I love this prediction. People have been making it since, what, the 1950's? Eventually it has to come true.

Other Celente predictions:

* The public is going to demand that the government break up powerful corporate monopolies.
* The return of individuality will spell an end to the multibillion-dollar fashion industry
* Painting and sculpture will be revolutionized by the incorporation of virtual reality and computer technology
* The macarena was only the beginning. Look for Americans to embrace Latin culture--particularly its music--on a wide scale.

Whatever happened to Ricky Martin? I miss Living La Vida Loca.

Here's what Celente missed: The Internet. Blogs. Online video. Digital music. The explosion in mobile communications. Social networks. The complete upheaval in the entertainment and information industries caused by all of the above. And, oh yeah, the first African-American president of the United States. That's the short list.

Celente isn't a seer. He just looks at current trends and extrapolates. That means, of course, he's totally blind to anything that doesn't yet show up on a data curve.

Any fool can do this, even me. But instead of reading the papers and poring over data, I used a Magic 8 Ball (the online version). Here's what it had to say:

* Food riots: Maybe

* Tent cities: Definitely

* Tax revolts: No way!

* The end of Christmas: Absolutely

* President Sarah Palin: Ask again later

(Celente didn't actually predict that last one, but I figured since we're trying to scare people, it was worth a try.)

The problem with making dire predictions like this is that modern economics is really an enormous confidence game. Like voodoo, it only works if you believe in it. You want to create a run on the banks? Tell people there's a run on the banks. So Celente isn't helping anybody except the folks who want to see the world collapse in the next four years, for entirely self-serving reasons.

Told you not to look.

When not hiding under his bed, Dan Tynan writes about la vida geeka at his blogs, Culture Crash and Tynan on Tech.



febpreet   
Member since: Jan 07
Posts: 3252
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-11-08 06:10:46

I had fun reading the above two posts. This shows no-one, I repeat NO-ONE these days could be 100% certain on economic outlook. Although, we have a various media (and CanadianDesi for that matter) analysts hovering over the various outlook, predictions, trends, or whatever you may call, I am sure the future will be something no-one could predict and analyze. The reason being simple - various factors and the prevailing environment of that time.

Ok, here's my analysis (my bad, if I am trapped in my own aforementioned statements). Given the USofA came out strongly from the jaws of 1930s, post world-war2, 1987, dot-come bust of 2001, it might be the possibility that it would overcome this period of uncertainty as well.

However, of-late I have convinced myself of two bold dots:

1. We are in recession (100%). Took me a long time to safely pop out from this denial.
2. Save as much as you CAN
3. Stop shopping for unnecessary household stuff
4. I know it's as hard as climbing a 5000ft. cliff these days, but try to maximize your earnings(legally) - ok, I admit it's next to impossible, but at least I can try no?
5. Last but not the least - don't panic. Remember, Life comes in various phases. This will be over soon.

There's a proverb used in China when they need to curse someone,"May you live in interesting times." I guess these are interesting times. For me, once its all over I am sure I'll learn a thing or two from this very interesting time.

To sum up my long, and insignificant post here's a quote from the movie 'Little Miss Sunshine' that I watched this evening, liked it and learned something from it. Hope you could very well make out the gist of the following lines:

"
Dwayne: I wish I could just sleep until I was eighteen and skip all this crap-high school and everything-just skip it.
Frank: Do you know who Marcel Proust is?
Dwayne: He's the guy you teach.
Frank: Yeah. French writer. Total loser. Never had a real job. Unrequited love affairs. Gay. Spent 20 years writing a book almost no one reads. But he's also probably the greatest writer since Shakespeare. Anyway, he uh... he gets down to the end of his life, and he looks back and decides that all those years he suffered, Those were the best years of his life, 'cause they made him who he was. All those years he was happy? You know, total waste. Didn't learn a thing. So, if you sleep until you're 18... Ah, think of the suffering you're gonna miss. I mean high school? High school-those are your prime suffering years. You don't get better suffering than that.
"


Ok. I am off to sleep, enough for today. Good luck to all of you, Doston!!



investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 23-11-08 20:13:48

just thought I'd share this video with you.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip114889

wait till the ad runs its course and then get the meat.
basically the deleveraging ain't over yet and we are set for another fall in the markets as more people are forced to sell to bring down their leveraged positions.
yesterday I was in a meeting and the heavies basically said more scatological material is gonna hit the fan.
like the time is up when we say we are f$$ked- which can be pleasant to many- now we are gonna be raped to hell- which the ASSumption is that it is pleasant to no one(well maybe the few into S&M- who knows?)

enjoy the week and see how it unfolds




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