Sub theek ho jayega . I have seen the oil price drop down to 8 $ per barel in 1999. I have seen the Dot com crash of 2001.
This thing will also pass and we will be back to square one.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
You know you are a desi when ........ You spew forth the virtues of India, but don't want to live there...............You've never had a tanning salon membership
Location: God's own country
Posted on: 27-10-08 15:26:45
Quote:
Originally posted by JRF
I believe TK or in his thread some one else predicted earlier that the oil will go to $60 which I did not believe at all and now is reality.
Yes. I was the one who predicted $60 a barrel in Oil price after the olympics and if the Geo political situation in the Oil producing nations were all OK. $147 a barrel was grossly unjustified and was all due to speculation / short trading / hedging etc...
I also said that the cost of CAD (worthiness) will decrease with the falling Oil prices but even I did not see it going to 78 cents. All credit to the credit crisis and the Global recession. I was expecting a more moderate downfall of the CAD $. It came quite a surprise to me too and now I am holding a very devalued CAD$ and could not convert into US$ due to the fast pace of falling of the CAD.
To move ahead , these are my predictions :
We are in a Global recession and as a person who has heard about the effects of recession, I can say the following :
1. House prices in Canada will be falling. COnstruction of retail/ commercial will be slow or standstill. Many real estate brokers / Mortgage professionals/ Builders / Draftsman / Architects / Civil /Site workers / Building Material manufacturing / Wood industry for housing will be out of work soon and will have to find other jobs in the coming year (2009)
2. CAD will be low in the near future (2-3 years). My guess is 75 cents to 85 cents. But am not sure. Again, I stil canot predict Oil b'cos there are many variables associated with it. It an go as low as $40 b'cos that is the fair price for Oil. However, ecomonists say that in 2 or 3 years when USA comes out of recession and the whole world will be in a boom due to USA, Oil will again climb over $100 and so this low price for Oil is only temporary.
3. manufacturing (other than car) will be booming or atleast decent as out low $ make it attractive to export to USA and other markets. But again, lot of factory labour jobs (paying $9-10) will abund thus providing jobs for Immigrants who flood Canada
4. Professional jobs in Finance / Banks will be purged and many will loose their jobs.
5. Again USA will be a major destination of Brain drain from Canada as many Canadian citizens willl head south owing to more jobs (than in Canada) and due to exchange rates.
All this IMO.
Peace by TK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I am a Gents and not a Ladies.
I am actually relieved that the CAD is falling below the USD (as long as it doesn't go underground like the Ruble did in the 90s
Now the CAD is approaching true valuation - par or above par was always inflated.
A strong USD is good for overall stability, at least in the short term.
A falling USD will wreak havoc everywhere.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
"Mah deah, there is much more money to be made in the destruction of civilization than in building it up."
-- Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind"
A question: I have around $5000CAD cash stashed away for taking on-line courses from a US university come this Jan. Is it advisable to convert it into gold certificates? I wont need all the cash for Jan semester. I don't trust the markets for parking my funds.
Quote:You are the mercy of the markets regardless whether you buy gold, buy USD or keep it in CAD.
Originally posted by bjork
I wont need all the cash for Jan semester. I don't trust markets for parking my funds.
We are all at the mercy of the markets.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
"Mah deah, there is much more money to be made in the destruction of civilization than in building it up."
-- Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind"
Quote:
Originally posted by bjork
A question: I have around $5000CAD cash stashed away for taking on-line courses from a US university come this Jan. Is it advisable to convert it into gold certificates? I wont need all the cash for Jan semester. I don't trust the markets for parking my funds.
Your best bet will be to diversify.. who knows what will hit us next.
Location: God's own country
Posted on: 29-10-08 12:44:50
Guys,
Forgot to tell you this before but I am telling it now, though it is a bit too late.
For atleast 2 weeks or so, it had been on the cards for US Fed to decrease the interest rates by 50 basis points. So as interest rate becomes low for the US$, It will grow weaker and it is shown today by the CAD $ jumping 3.02 cents the highest intraday jump recorded since 1970.
Though the Cdn dollar will remain low for quite some time to come, It is consalation for people who have kept their currencies in CAD $.
Long live Capitalism.
Peace by TK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I am a Gents and not a Ladies.
