"The market here could turn ugly too as more houses are being built than are needed" says an analysis released Thursday by Peter Hall, chief economist at Export Development Canada.

That holds true even in everywhere in Canada, where the number of housing starts has begun to fall but is still outstripping demand, said Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. regional economist Carol Frketich.


The feds are right to pull the plug by withholding guarantees on 40-year, no-down-payment mortgages.

Because, while buying a home may be the best investment many of us will ever make, it is never a sure thing. And there are times when people are better off not owning a home.

You don't need money in your pocket to buy. And the payments will be as low as they can possibly be - though the need to keep making them goes on, and on, and on.

So you'll love it if you're a speculator who wants the most-possible property for the least-possible cash outlay in the expectation that prices will continue to rise. Who cares about paying down principal in order to build equity if you're counting on ever-higher prices to do that for you?

But those days are gone. Smart money left RE bubble for greater fool till market adjusts itself.

A better option is for people to wait until they can afford to buy home not jumbo mortgages. And, in an odd way, this policy change will help them.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by Rajeev Narula

Selective reporting?!

Here are few more "selectives" from the same report to put the things in (fair) perspective:

Sales are also down because potential owners are being priced out of the market, Gauthier said.
......
"The Toronto land transfer tax has been in effect for four months, and the decline in sales has been running for the same time period," said board president Maureen O'Neill.

---

-----------------------------------------------------------------
*Don't expect me to be perfect all the time, but please recognize it when I am. -Ashley Brilliant (#4114, c1987)

Expert’s fundamentals are strong, oil price is high, lowest unemployment rate, +ve migration but still RE is going down. We already seen 10% price down from peak last year.

Q: How down can we go in next two years?
--------------------------------------------------------


http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=9767aee8-1c7b-4f79-857b-cff7c1a2a101

CALGARY - Residential MLS sales in Calgary for the first half of this year showed the largest decline in the country compared with a year ago, according to statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The number of MLS sales in the city during the first six months of 2008 fell by 32.3 per cent to 13,525 units and the total dollar volume also decreased by the biggest percentage in the country (31.6 per cent to $5.6 billion). The average MLS sale price in Calgary increased by 1.1 per cent to $416,109 compared with the first half of 2007 while new listings rose by 14.7 per cent to 33,954 units.

Nationally, MLS sales dropped by 13.3 per cent (169,265 units) during the first six months of 2008 compared with 2007, total dollar volume also dropped by 10.5 per cent ($57.6 billion), new listings rose by 8.1 per cent (332,958) and the average sale price increased by 3.2 per cent ($340,390).

For the month of June, all categories showed decreases for Calgary in the residential MLS market compared with June 2007 - total dollar volume (23 per cent, $1 billion); sales (21.5 per cent, 2,400 units); average sale price (two per cent, $418,866); and new listings (8.4 per cent, 5,080 units).

Across the country, sales dropped by 15 per cent to 30,751 units, total dollar volume decreased by 15.4 per cent to $10.5 billion, the average sale price declined by 0.4 per cent to $341,096, and new listings rose by 6.2 per cent to 55,639 units.

Rahul, you suggested prices are 10% down from the peak last year... I don't refute, as I don't know.. what I know is that the properties I was looking for last year are now selling at higher prices than last year...

Would other members like to share their views on the fact as to whether it is really a bad time to buy?... I am thinking of buying a house but after reading this post I am a little confused... sorry if I asked for a discussion on a topic that has already been taken care of in another post...

Thanks

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Vik

vikshr,
I am not sure how long you are in Calgary/AB and following RE. There are tons of houses on sale on every corner in Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton at least. You can see open house sign on every crossing on weekends (saw few on week days too). You will see little fewer inventories at this point as compare to 3-4 weeks as lot of listing expired and they will come soon with new paint.


Whether it is really a bad time to buy?... I think that is your call and your financial decision and no-one can help you. This formula may help you little.

Fair Price = {[1/(5 Year mortgage rate)*100] * [Annual Rent (estimate) - Annual Strata Fees/Maintenance - Annual Property Taxes]}



http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2006/09/calgary.html

Calgary:
Average sale price last year in June 2007 was around 505K for SFH and median was 460k.

Now:
Avg Sale Price, Last 30 Days: $ 465,785
Median Sale Price, Last 30 Days: $ 410,000

RE Sale:
Total Properties 14991 - Res 9228 - Condo - 3981 Acreage - 1105

Okay now I know whats the problem... Rahul you were talking about Calgary/AB in particular.... I live in GTA so all these stats are not exactly relevant for me, sorry for giving you trouble...

Is there someone on the board who would like to share his/her knowledge/experience on the housing trend in GTA?

I own a Condo in the city of Mississauga (Square one area, to be more precise) ... I am now thinking of selling my condo and buy a house somewhere in Missisauga ... I have been carrying out a soft search for sometime now without much luck... one of the main factor that motivates me to buy a house is the value appreciation over the years... softening housing market is not a news for anyone... I am just not sure how bad the market is or where it is heading ....
if there is no/very little value appreciation in near future, I would rather scrap my decision to buy a house altogeather...realtor's view on this is not of much help, as even if they are right I would suspect they are lying (well, conflict of interest)....

May I request CD members living in GTA to share their views on housing trend here ... sorry for no input from my side... I would have done that if I knew the trend..

All input are much appreciated!!!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Vik

Quote:

---

Originally posted by vikshr

I own a Condo in the city of Mississauga (Square one area, to be more precise) ... I am now thinking of selling my condo and buy a house somewhere in Missisauga ...

I have been carrying out a soft search for sometime now without much luck... one of the main factor that motivates me to buy a house is the value appreciation over the years... softening housing market is not a news for anyone... I am just not sure how bad the market is or where it is heading ....
if there is no/very little value appreciation in near future,

I would rather scrap my decision to buy a house altogeather...realtor's view on this is not of much help, as even if they are right I would suspect they are lying (well, conflict of interest)....

All input are much appreciated!!!

---

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Amit Kalia, Broker, REALTOR®
RE/MAX Real Estate Centre., Brokerage
independently owned & operated
100 City Centre Dr, Unit 1-702
Mississauga, ON L5B 2C9
Phone No.: 905-339-5111
Website: https://www.realestate-ontario.com/
Condo Blog: https://condopundit.com/blog/