Posted on: 10-09-05 07:02:26
This is from THE HINDU of 9th September, 2005.
http://www.hindu.com/2005/09/09/stories/2005090914891700.htm
It will take India 100 years to catch up: UNDP
Special Correspondent
Long way to go despite economic growth
NEW DELHI: The United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Report 2005 says \"it will still take India until 2106 to catch up with high-income countries.\"
The report noted that even though high growth in India has been one of the most powerful forces for convergence between rich and poor countries, it might still have to wait a century to become fully developed. As for the other countries, convergence prospects were even more limited.
\"Were high-income countries to stop growing today and Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa to continue on their current growth trajectories, it would take Latin America until 2177 and Africa until 2236 to catch up,\" the report said. Most of the developing regions were falling behind instead of catching up with rich countries.
Gap narrowing
The report, however, pointed out that with incomes growing rapidly in China and less spectacularly in India over the past two decades as compared to those in high-income countries, the average gap has been narrowing in relative terms.
\"This reverses a trend towards increased global inequality that started in the 1820s and continued until 1992,\" the report said.
Malnutrition prevalent
The HDI report pointed out that despite the decline in \"income poverty,\" 50 per cent of India's children are still afflicted by malnutrition and the country was way off the track from achieving its millennium development goals.
\"Some of India's southern cities may be in the midst of a technology boom, but one in every 11 children dies in the first five years of life for lack of low-cost interventions,\" the report said.
The incidence of income poverty has declined from about 36 per cent in the early Nineties to somewhere around 25-30 per cent today.
\"But, overall, the evidence suggests that the pick-up in growth has not translated into a commensurate decline in poverty,\" it said.
Extreme poverty
Even as income growth has been dynamic in other States, urban areas and service sectors, the report noted that extreme poverty is still concentrated in the rural areas of northern belt States, including Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
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Wonder who the hell whips up these reports and what hat they pull it out of.
First there was some Morgan Stanely report saying India will be a super-power by 2050 or something at the same level as the U.S. and China.
And now this.
I find both stupid, this one even more because its trying to make a 100 year prediction. The speed at which the global equation is changing these days, its impossible to predict what's going to happen even 20 years from now and who's going to be where on the global stage. I mean how do you factor in unpredictable stuff like
a) Terrorism
b) Natural disasters
c) Technological breakthroughs
d) Wars
e) Uncurable disease
..........and so on and so forth. All of these (and more) will be key to who will be catching up with who and who will be dropping out of the race.
I personally think that despite tremendous progress in a very short amount of time, India (which isn't only Mumbai and Bangalore) still has ways to go to truly catch up with the rest of the world in terms of literacy and infrastructure. But the current progress has been so rapid and unexpected in the past 10/15 years or so, the base equation for mapping future progress has changed. No one could've predicted the status quo in 1985 and no one can predict something for 2117. Especially when nobody knows what the world is going to look like in 2020.
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Are you there?
Quote:
Orginally posted by BlueLobster
no one can predict something for 2117. Especially when nobody knows what the world is going to look like in 2020.
I can!
Until the political shenanigans and corruption doesn't stop, India might become rich but it will only be the rich getting richer and the poor remaining poor.
Thus spake DTC!!
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Diogenes
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The Cynic
