Job market to significantly weaken - expect no recovery for next 5 yrs
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Location: carl sagan's universe
Posted on: 18-03-09 10:14:09
Quote:
Originally posted by jinxed
Investpro apparently you need a class in economics 101 - see if you can find some material in your local library.
Dow jones will fall through 4500 - BDI is frozen,housing , umemployment, credit all are frozen - the full wrath of CDO unwinding is yet to happen, which will take down C or BAC or maybe both. GM is days away from bankruptcy and with it will go all the parts suppliers.
Nouriel Roubini and Paul Krugman are celebrated economists and not mere prophets of doom (I am an avid follower of both) - in fact Roubini called the current crash back in 2006
A smart investor goes with the trend - I have made very nice money buying puts and bear spreads. Also currencies and commodities are an excellent play. Your misguided optimism -( read wishful thinking) will only lead the readers on this forum to l0se what little they might have left
Interesting. Actually I am a guest speaker in various unis for their eco 101 classes and also for the MBA programs in supposedly illustrious unis incl. my alma mater Cornell U.
I have met Roubini on a couple of occasions and many other well known economists in my time incl. Milton Friedman.
They are Dadas in their own respect, but in certain circles I am known to be a maven on the Indian economy. I laugh when I think of that, 'cos I know tons of people who are better than me in that field, only thing is that they don't network as much as I do which is probably why I get certain kudos which should rightfully be theirs.
At any rate, it is my belief and that of several pundits that no economy guru really knows what is currently happening and that includes both Roubini and Klugman.
To state a oft repeated dull truism- your trip to believe what you will. If you wish to believe the Dow will crack below 4500, please do so.
My fingers are crossed that this will not come to pass at least not in the near future.
Enjoy!
Location: carl sagan's universe
Posted on: 18-03-09 10:34:29
Hi Jinxed,
Just as an FYI, I attended Roubini's seminars in 2006 and 2007 and he attended one in the fall of 2007 where I was a speaker, basically to listen to what I had to say on India.
I do not purport to be in the same league as he is, far from it.He is a real Dada and is constantly involved in the study of economics. I am a mere small time potato.
What I wish to suggest is that I do not need a course in eco 101.
Your trip if you think I need one.
OK I owe you an explanation for my rather harsh response - my post was an original - but you just copy pasted an aritcle - rather than refuting my post (which you actually did in the later posts) - I just get annoyed by people not having any originality and pasting articles when they might write a couple of lines and just post the link.
I also very much appreciate your dignified response - you made your point without indulging in counter insulting - need to do more of that myself. You also command my respect because of
Ok pleasantries exchanged, now what do you think from a fundamenta/technical standpoint will keep the market from crashing down to mid 4000(next major resistance ) now that it has broken past the very strong 7400.
To me North American consumer is what makes the world economy tick and it has retrenched - which causes unemployment (first in retail and then ripples across to other sectors) - causing further retrenchment - you see the vicious cycle ?
Rajiv,
I agree you need to be frugal, but more than that knowledge will help you ride the tide - you know how to short the market ? If not learn it - study options and look at things like oil trading - thats what will help you keep a steady secondary income even if you lose your job - Knowledge is Profit.
Anyone trading in put options on this board. If so how are you doing?
Also the self proclaimed Canadian guru of active investing Derek Foster recently offloaded all his stocks saying that markets are overvalued. The week after he did that stocks are up 10% on Citigroups positive report. Derek is an advocate of put options so wanted to see the experience of people on this board.
I am not an economist but I strongly believe in law of nature. We are responsible of creating all this mess. So much automation has been created in our lives. When computer/machine can do a job then where is the need of human being. We are heading with a fast move when robots will take our place. There is no law to stop such kind of research. (Wait, we will have human clones also)
Scientists are so concerned about the research of other planets and government is wasting billions of dollars (e.g. NASA) on such kinds of research which will make no change in our lives (Of course it will change the life of a scientist)
Nothing will recover sooner or later. Only big natural disaster can put the life back on track when we will start building the nations again.
So, don't beleive in economists, think logically and u will get a clear picture.
Newton,
I was short - bear call spread (-60/+65) RIMM feb option - made very good money.
Was also short Mar SPY - lost some and closed position due to the recent rally .
I am out of options market - into currencies and commodities - short USD, long Crude Oil far for APR but starting MAY I expect the bear market to resume its course and DOW to close below 6000.
If you want sepcific answers comment on economyzombie dot blogspot dot com
Quote:
Originally posted by jinxed
Newton,
I was short - bear call spread (-60/+65) RIMM feb option - made very good money.
Was also short Mar SPY - lost some and closed position due to the recent rally .
I am out of options market - into currencies and commodities - short USD, long Crude Oil far for APR but starting MAY I expect the bear market to resume its course and DOW to close below 6000.
If you want sepcific answers comment on economyzombie dot blogspot dot com
Quite agree with jinxed. The rally was overdue as Market was in oversold Zone. Total wealth of 20-25 Trillion evaporated when Dow came down from around 15K to 10K in Oct 2008 and From October 2008 to March 2009 the DOW came down from 10K to 7.5K and total wealth evaporated to the tune of $36 Trillion.
Just to let everyone know and to support above points, Wealth destruction didn’t actually occur at the crash in 1929 but however it happened after a bounce in 1930 and lasted well into 1933.
There are no jobs in Market. labour or manufacturing or Retail or Office or Finance or IT etc.. However only those people know better who are affected by this downturn.
IBM has announced Job Cut of 5000 in US. Financial system is still bleeding. Even after spending trillions of dollars, there is still credit crunch.
A surge in borrower defaults and unemployment pressures will make 2009 an even uglier year for banks than last year, analyst Meredith Whitney said. She predicted "breakups and M&As on a grand scale" as the industry seeks to remake itself in the face of all its capital pressures.
In particular, she said Citigroup's statement that it had turned a profit the first two months of 2009 might came back to haunt it once a fuller picture was presented.
Consumers also will face pressure as unemployment grows and banks and credit card companies start calling in credit lines to avoid getting stuck with even more bad debt.
"The probability of more people going into default is higher, so the banks are going to have a tough time," she said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29735000
Hope this helps.
Peace,
Cheers!
