To lock or not to lock...


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mynameisraj   
Member since: Dec 06
Posts: 296
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 01-06-07 13:53:35

...that is the question really with the loonie getting stronger and all indications that an interest rate hike's looming large:

http://torontosun.com/News/Canada/2007/05/30/4219075-sun.html

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/savingsdebt/johncaspar/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4943374

Interesting conundrum...I think.



investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 01-06-07 22:30:40

Not at all. Historically, variable whups fixed. But what the future holds, who knows?

Then one can go with the split mortgage, some fixed and some floating (this has been touched upon in past threads) to spread your risks- also cool. Of late I have been arranging a lot of these splits.

Amazing that none of these articles have touched upon this. Typical non-informed journalism.Discount in my opinion.
If you can live with floating rates go for it. If you wish to know a budget go for fixed. If you are in a quandary go for the mara-mari.



guptamik   
Member since: Mar 05
Posts: 277
Location: Toronto

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 02-06-07 10:03:32

Good thoughts Raj and Investpro. I have to agree that over all Variable does whoop Fixed unless someone has a GREAT fixed rate (or have been spoilt by a previous good fixed rate mortgage :o) ). While there's a hike in the horizon, I think this will be temporary. The USD will eventually rise, and the loonie will stablize. However, until then, we are stuck with higher rates; we too have a variable mortgage and the stron loonie with inflation is gonna whoop us soon :)

-B



heaven   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 70
Location: Toronto

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 02-06-07 11:22:47

Predictions by CIBC and RBC
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7007520729
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/220707

slightly off topic...
Will the rising loonie have any impact on other expenses like car, gas, clothes and groceries?



mynameisraj   
Member since: Dec 06
Posts: 296
Location:

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 02-06-07 12:37:32

Quote:
Originally posted by investpro

Not at all. Historically, variable whups fixed. But what the future holds, who knows?

Then one can go with the split mortgage, some fixed and some floating (this has been touched upon in past threads) to spread your risks- also cool. Of late I have been arranging a lot of these splits.



Great!! Thanks. But don't these various choices along with a gazillion unknown factors pose a "conundrum"?? It ain't an easy choice is all I meant...right?

Quote:
Originally posted by investpro
Amazing that none of these articles have touched upon this. Typical non-informed journalism.



I think there were over a 1000 news articles on this topic...in google news. I didn't have time to go through all of them. But you are partially right.



investpro   
Member since: Nov 06
Posts: 1628
Location: carl sagan's universe

Post ID: #PID Posted on: 02-06-07 23:18:52

Quote:
Originally posted by heaven

Predictions by CIBC and RBC
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7007520729
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/220707

slightly off topic...
Will the rising loonie have any impact on other expenses like car, gas, clothes and groceries?


There were many such predictions last year as well re parity with the US dollar. Who knows what the future holds.
It may hit parity, that's the nature of things. A rising loonie means cheaper imports, but except for gas and a few other items which have actually instead gone up due other factors, nothing much has changed. The prices should go down, but since the loonie has risen in recent years cars remain the same price if not higher. clothes as well, groceries as well.

TV's and digi cams have gone down but that is due novelty factor.

In other words, the theory suggests prices should go down as imports get cheaper, but in reality we are stuck with inflation. Too many factors involved. Econometrics can't really take into account all factors.

CAD may have risen agnst USD, but agnst INR it has lost value. Can you get Rs 40+ now thru legal channels like we could last year when the loonie was at 93? And against curencies like the UAE dirham and HKD which are more or less fixed, trading /in a narrow boundary vis-a-vis the USD, how is the CAD moving with them?
Perhaps some of our currency experts may wish to elaborate on that.
If anyone on CD can come up with such a formula, their name will go down in history.





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