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Network: All Home Hunters
Posted on: 14-11-08 17:19:01
Thanks Amit. This is a good idea.
What is your pick Amit?
Quote:
Originally posted by amit kalia
Quote:
Originally posted by rahul_singh23
How much price change do we expect in a year (Nov 2009 vs Nov 2008) in your local city?
1. -10%
2. -20%
3. -30% and more
4. +5%
5. +10%
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My Ans: 2 at least.
This may be put on the CD poll. It will be interesting to see what CD's think.
GTA's avg. home prices in Oct 31, 2009 vs. Oct 31, 2008:
1. No change
2. down 5-10%
3. down 11-15%
4. down 16-20%
5. down 20 % or more
6. up 1-5%
7. up 6-10%
8. up more than 10%. Just kidding
I will cast my vote
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Amit Kalia, Broker, REALTOR®
RE/MAX Real Estate Centre., Brokerage
independently owned & operated
100 City Centre Dr, Unit 1-702
Mississauga, ON L5B 2C9
Phone No.: 905-339-5111
Website: https://www.realestate-ontario.com/
Condo Blog: https://condopundit.com/blog/
I put his poll on the home page. Please vote.
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A Proud Indian Canadian
Hi Amit, How do your predict market may be our CD can learn and make better decision?
Quote:
Originally posted by amit kalia
I will cast my vote
In the first two weeks of November, only 800-odd houses sold in Toronto, which was about 50% less than the same time last year. Prices were down and listings were up. At this rate there’s about a 2-year supply of homes for sale, so good luck if you’re trying to flog one.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
3. It is much cheaper to rent a home than to buy one, so until there is a powerful reason to own real estate (like a sure-thing capital gain) there’s no reason to expect prices to rise. Anyone looking to improve their family’s finances will conclude that tenants win in this environment.
4. Real estate cannot rise in value without a steady diet of new buyers, and right now potential first-time purchasers have been shut out of the market by a return to more traditional financing. With the end of zero down payments and 40-year amortizations in Canada and the collapse of the subprime lending market in the US, it takes actual money to buy a house. New buyers will have to save for a down payment – and that takes years.
5. Interest rates may have been forced down by central banks, but that didn’t make mortgages any cheaper. The credit crunch tightened lending terms and rates, just when buyers were thinning out. Bad news for the market.
6. Armies of small-time housing speculators have been caught and crushed in the real estate meltdown. In Toronto alone 30% of all the new condos under development (more than 50,000) have been purchased by flippers, usually for minimal cash and with maximum financing. These people will either walk away from their investments before closing, rent them out for whatever they can get to offset monthly losses, or dump them on the market at fire sale prices. The dampening impact on the market as a whole – prices in particular – should not be underestimated. The last time something similar happened, in the early 1990s, condo values plunged by 40%.
7. Plunging financial markets and plopping house values are hitting the soon-to-be-retired Boomers especially hard. These people had been drivers of the real estate market for decades and have a huge amount of net worth tied up in their homes. Their exit as buyers from the market is a downer for everybody, and the certainty that they’ll be desperately dumping properties in the coming few years will further crash values.
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Housing Slump Hits Canada as Seller Offers C$100,000 Deal Bonus
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aUaxzBW8q_OU&refer=home
West Vancouver builder Sean Hanley thought Canada's real estate market would be immune to the housing recession that sent values tumbling in the U.S. Then the economy slowed and oil prices fell.
The price of a detached house in this upscale community fell 22 percent in October from a year earlier, helping to drag the average residential price in Canada down by 9.9 percent, the biggest decline in 26 years, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and the Canadian Real Estate Association. For Hanley, that's meant nary a buyer for his five-bedroom home.
Quote:
Originally posted by rahul_singh23
Hi Amit, How do your predict market may be our CD can learn and make better decision?
Rahul, you have been a passionate advocate of real estate gloom since many years. It feels like you spend hours everday doing your research.
Many CD's on this forum are web savvy and also read things that interest them on Internet. But they don't simply copy and paste everything from anywhere on this forum.
If you love doing what you do, then a better way to communicate your thoughts is to start your own blog. This way it may be easier to read all the real esate bad news in one place.
My job role is not to predict markets. Often I give my clients an overview of current market conditions and projections based on their specific properties and neighbourhoods. I am a sales and marketing person who deals in buying, selling and renting real estate in Mississauga, I am not Nostradamus.
Thanks,
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Amit Kalia, Broker, REALTOR®
RE/MAX Real Estate Centre., Brokerage
independently owned & operated
100 City Centre Dr, Unit 1-702
Mississauga, ON L5B 2C9
Phone No.: 905-339-5111
Website: https://www.realestate-ontario.com/
Condo Blog: https://condopundit.com/blog/
Rahul - You must realize that Amit (and his fellow realtors) can put food on his dining table only if he sells houses TODAY. How can Future Shop tell their customers to come back on Boxing Day Sale when there will be better deals rather than buy before Christmas?
Amit seems to have high ethics (that's top 1% of all realtors) - I base this conclusion on his other posts on CD. I respect his polite and diplomatic response on the question of future of housing market.
Respect,
DIA
All said and done Rahul's analysis /posts do have relevance and are interesting to read ..... By what I hear on the radio and otherwise , if recession sets in as is feared , house prices much like everything else will take a beating .... funny thing is .. that despite knowing this ....some brokers publicize that this is the best time to buy as not only are prices the least over last x months , but the impact of global recession fears is there on today's prices ..... since the Canadian economy is strong on fundamentals (sic) we will steer ahead and the prices will rebound to a high shortly .... hence the best time is now ...
Once consumption goes down and there s less cash flow in the market , not only will mortgages be dearer .. as a consequence lesser no. of buyers and hence less price on houses ....... look at the past 3 months to observe the trend and these are just fears of recession .... the real impact will be felt one / two years into recession .... 2010 ...
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