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Originally posted by ILOVENA


Can you foresee the OP'S future or are you a soothsayer?

It appears you don't watch the telly or read the papers - the recession in North America is almost over and the latest quarter showed a GDP growth of 3.5 %. By the way 650,000 jobs were created in the last quarter.

Perhaps, you need to change your prediction, eh?

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Can you foresee the Economy's future or are you a soothsayer?

Perhaps, you need to change your prediction, eh?



August GDP stumble puts recovery timing and strength into question

By Julian Beltrame (CP) – 1 day ago

OTTAWA — Canada's economy unexpectedly went into reverse again in August, adding new uncertainty about the strength and sustainability of the recovery.

The real gross domestic product, an inflation-adjusted measure of the economy, fell 0.1 per cent in August - the first outright decline in three months - in a broad set back led by oil-and-gas extraction, mining and manufacturing.

The Canadian dollar dropped more than a penny to the mid-92-cent level following the report, likely reflecting a combination of factors including a strengthening U.S. greenback, lower commodity prices and the weak GDP.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty expressed concern that the private-sector economy has yet to start its engine, adding that Ottawa has acted properly in ensuring stimulus is applied over two years.

But Liberal critic John McCallum said the Conservative government deserves some of the blame for failing to get infrastructure projects up and running and creating jobs fast enough.

"This doesn't auger well. It's certainly not a good sign for jobs (creation)," McCallum said.

Claiming only about 12 per cent of the so-called shovel-read projects are under way, McCallum said Flaherty should consider extending the deadline beyond 2010 or risk failing to spend some of the budgeted stimulus at all.

Economists said the negative GDP reading, after a flat July that was not revised upwards as some had hoped, will make it very difficult for the economy to match the Bank of Canada's newest forecast announced last week that predicts growth would average two per cent in the third quarter.

With only the September data remaining, it would take a massive bounce last month to meet the expectation.

If the economy is recovering, "it's a pretty wimpy start of a recovery," said Scotiabank senior economist Derek Holt.

With the strong dollar likely having cut into exports and boosted imports in September, Holt said it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the quarter as a whole could turn in a negative performance - which would mean the recession, technically, did not end at the end of June.

"I don't rule out a negative (reading) at all," Holt said.

That is still not the base-case scenario envisioned by economists, however. Most, including Holt, believe the third quarter will show modest growth, but not enough to boost confidence and far behind the 3.5-per-cent pace set by the U.S. for the corresponding period.

Earlier this week, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives argued the United States had done a far better job of rolling out stimulus spending than Ottawa. It estimated the Obama administration has outspent the Harper government 7-1.

About half of the gross domestic product jump in the U.S. during the third quarter was attributed to the wildly popular cash-for-clunkers program and government incentives for new home buyers, both of which have ended.

"We now put more hope in a strong Quarter 4, but there is no doubt that the Canadian economy has been slower out of the recessionary gate that we had initially expected," said Meny Grauman, an economist with CIBC.

Grauman said the Bank of Canada is now likely to keep interest rates at the lowest practical level of 0.25 per cent until the end of 2010, well beyond the conditional commitment of keeping it at that level until next June.

That changes the picture of the loonie going forward and puts into question earlier expectations it would reach parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of the year, and possibly rise above next year.

The August fall-back was almost entirely due to continued weakness in the critical goods producing part of the economy, with consumer-generated activity remaining strong.

Oil-and-gas extraction fell 2.3 per cent, as maintenance work at some crude petroleum facilities on the East Coast slowed production. Natural gas production also retreated.

The output of the mining sector excluding oil and gas extraction declined 1.4 per cent.

Manufacturing activity decreased 0.7 per cent, with eight of the 21 major groups retreating. Wholesale declined 0.5 per cent, reflecting weakness in foreign and domestic demand.

Meanwhile, retail sales increased 0.3 per cent, the public sector advanced 0.4 per cent, construction gained 0.2 per cent, and the level of activity of real estate agents and brokers remained high for a third straight month.

The output of utilities also rose, 1.8 per cent, as natural-gas distribution and the production of electricity increased.

Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Originally posted by gopalpai
ILOVENA, I have so many mail in my in box, in which people are asking me to help them find a job. My dear, I am visiting different employment agencies and I know the responses I get.
It will take some time for the economy to get back to pavilion.

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Gopal Pai,
It all depends on the profession.
There is 100 % chance that he will get a job if he is a bachelor of Arts in Political science but then he has done a 3 months course in IT and he has some 2 or 3 years IT experience or if he is a Finance or accounting profession.
On the other hand, if he is a IIt Electrical Engr, or a MS Doctor from USA/ UK or an Architect or a Logistics profession, or a professor of English etc.. then he may not get a job.
So it all depends on the profession. We canot comment when the OP has not revealed his profession. Also not all are interested in doing CSR or Tim Hortons jobs.
Hope this helps.

PEace by a PD

Quote:

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Originally posted by ILOVENA


It appears you don't watch the telly or read the papers - the recession in North America is almost over and the latest quarter showed a GDP growth of 3.5 %. By the way 650,000 jobs were created in the last quarter.

Perhaps, you need to change your prediction, eh?

/sponsor

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Is Canada still in recession or in mother of all jobless recoveries?

By Julian Beltrame (CP) – 3 hours ago

OTTAWA — Canada's economic recovery is suddenly looking vulnerable after Statistics Canada shocked observers Friday with new data showing the country lost 71,000 jobs last month.

The October figure was the third major economic indicator that has surprised well to the downside since the Bank of Canada declared the recession over in July.

But the grim jobs data - glossed up by a 27,500-gain in self-employment that brought the net loss to 43,200 - puts into question the previous two months of reported gains.

In conjunction with gross domestic product readings of zero growth in July and a 0.1 per cent shrinkage in August, the growth predicted for the third quarter appears to have vanished into thin air.

No economist now believes Canada will come close to matching the U.S. third quarter growth of 3.5 per cent when Statistics Canada reports later this month. And, some say, the quarterly GDP data may show that Canada did not emerge from the recession at all.

"Technically, we could still be in recession," agreed Michael Gregory of BMO Capital Markets.

"You are in recession until there is evidence you are not."

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates said in a email that if the slump has ended, "it is the mother of all jobless recoveries."

Even Human Resources Minister Diane Finley hedged on whether Canada has emerged from the recession that began a year ago.

"In the last two months when we saw declines in unemployment, we cautioned people about getting overly optimistic too soon," she said in an interview.

"Unfortunately, we are not out of the woods yet. But then we are nowhere near the position originally forecast a year ago when they were saying there could be as high as 10 per cent unemployment."

Most economists still believe September growth will rescue Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney from a forecasting embarrassment.

Some, like TD Bank's Grant Bishop, even argues that September could be robust. He points out that there was a 1.6 per cent pick-up in hours worked during the month, which augers well for increased production.

But the doubts are now more than theoretical.

The evidence for recovery include rebounding home and retail sales, a return to production in the auto sector, fewer plant closures, and to some extent jobs - at least the three-month average shows no overall losses.

As well, a series of unfortunate occurrences - from poor weather to the Toronto municipal workers strike in the summer and labour stoppages in the mining sector - have conspired to keep GDP numbers lower than they might have been, argues Merrill Lynch chief economist Sheryl King.

The thinking is that with the strikes ending, September will do for the recovery what economists thought July would accomplish.

The corollary is that important sectors are unquestionably still sliding, including manufacturing, exports and business investment.

Despite a strong third quarter, artificially pumped up by U.S. government incentives, the United States reported that another 190,000 jobs vanished in October, and that the jobless rate had hit a 26-year high of 10.2 per cent.

For Jim Stanford, the chief economist with the Canadian Auto Workers, whether third quarter GDP in Canada will be slightly above zero or below is beside the point.

He said by every real measure of economic performance, Canada is still in recession, and deeply so.

"It is clear that the qualitative conditions are not present for a genuine recovery," Stanford explained.

"We need to see the private sector kicking into gear, with a broad and self-sustaining expansion, before we can say the recession is over. That isn't remotely true in Canada."

Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Quote:

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Originally posted by ILOVENA



It appears you don't watch the telly or read the papers - the recession in North America is almost over and the latest quarter showed a GDP growth of 3.5 %. By the way 650,000 jobs were created in the last quarter.

Perhaps, you need to change your prediction, eh?

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What recovery? Unemployment shoots past 10 percent

By JEANNINE AVERSA and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER (AP) – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON — Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.

The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.

President Barack Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.

Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.

Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.

"It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."

The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.

The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.

One struggling small business, homebuilder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs.

Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.

And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.

Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.

Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.

Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year.

"This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.

Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the recession is over.

"It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier."

The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes.

Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600 a month in unemployment benefits, barely enough for the rent for his efficiency apartment, food and utilities.

He has trouble believing the recession is over. In his neighborhood, he sees other jobless people and empty stores.

"It's as if they just gave the economy a nice coat of varnish to make everyone feel better," he said. "I'm in a state of anxiety, and I see it all around Miami."

The worst recession since the 1930s may be over, but the recovery isn't expected to be strong enough to stem job losses and get businesses hiring again. And the unemployed are staying out of work longer. The count of people jobless for six months or longer stands at a record 5.6 million.

As for employers, few are confident enough in the recovery to hire. Art McKeen, plant manager of the Baldor Electric Co. factory in suburban St. Louis, says the plant has no plans add workers any time soon.

Baldor cut back production last year and put workers on part-time hours rather than lay them off. Orders have picked up again, but not enough to justify hiring. "We don't have the need for them right now," McKeen said.

Prospects that the government might pass a second stimulus bill appear dim. Congress is already grappling with sweeping health care legislation, raising concerns about further swelling the federal deficit.

"More debt, more spending ... clearly has not worked — particularly in a time of double-digit unemployment," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Democrats said the economy would have been in worse shape without the first stimulus.

October was the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs, the longest on record dating back 70 years. Losses at factories, construction companies, retailers and financial services companies far outweighed gains in education and health care, professional and business services and elsewhere. Government payrolls were flat.

One faint sign of hope: Temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, its third straight month of gains after steep losses earlier this year. Employers are likely to add temporary workers before hiring permanent ones.

Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the big jump in the jobless rate "a kick in the stomach" and predicted a slog ahead. It could take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent.

"The last two recoveries from recession in the '90s and 2001 were jobless, and this one is clearly headed down the same road," he said.