In Mumbai the voter turnout was 41%. This inspite of unprecedented propoganda done by newspapers like TOI devoting precious columns and asking people to come out and vote. The reason is, along with the voting day holiday of Thursday April 30, holiday on Friday for May 1, it gave Mumbaikars a long weekend for planning trips.

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The Manmohan Singh-led Congress government will return to power, says an Intelligence Bureau report.

The secret report � which was collected maintaining much independence � indicates the Congress will get 160-180 seats. A top official, who was part of the data collection, said Dr Manmohan Singh [Images] would take over as the prime minister again.

But the BJP rejects the IB report. Says its leader SS Ahluwalia, "Dr Singh and his family have been planting stories in the media. You do not expect the Congress and an organization like IB to give results otherwise. You wait and watch, the BJP is comfortably placed and we are going to get more then 200-plus seats. Efforts are on to rope in others who want to join the NDA," Ahluwalia said, brushing aside the report.

The IB, however, appears confident about the report.

"I have been hearing silly stories in the media circles that the IB has identified four houses for Dr Singh in case he loses elections. There is no truth in such stories," said the IB official.

Link>http://election.rediff.com/report/2009/may/09/loksabhapoll-congress-will-return-to-power-says-ib.htm

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Bala

Times Now gives 198 seats for the UPA, 182 for the NDA and 112 for the Third Front. This slender lead for UPA over NDA is real bad news and really means the opposite.
Given the large women voter turn out, and the immense latent indignation they feel for the price rise, the UPA is definitely going to be voted out of power, which information these paid news channels hide. The food grains and edible oils price rise is just too much. Rice from Rs.18 in 2006 has shot up to Rs.36 in 2009. Similarly pulses and edible oils have shown also shown 100% rise during the last 3 years. This has neither benefited the farmers. The traders and middle men have only benefited for reasons best known to Mr. PC.
Given the soft corner the English news channels have for Sonia, Priyanka and Rahul, the results should actually be interpreted as about 220 for the NDA and 160 for the UPA.

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The Congress-led alliance held a slight edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies across three exit polls/survey telecast by television news networks, while the Third Front crosses the three-figure mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

The Star-Nielsen survey shows the Congress leading from the front with a projection of 155 seats for the party, with its alliance notching up a total of 199 seats. The survey predicts the BJP-led alliance bagging 196 seats, with the leading partner, the BJP, projected to get 153 seats.

It gives the Third Front 100 seats, including 28 for the BSP and 25 for the CPI-M, while the nascent Fourth Front, is projected to get 36 seats with the Samajwadi Party bagging 26, the Rashtriya Janata Dal 8 and the Lok Jan Shakti Party 2. The survey gives no seat to the newly formed Praja Rajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh.

CNN-IBN projections based on a national election study with Dainik Bhaskar claimed that the results would be a photo finish, with the Congress and its allies being in the range of 185 to 205 seats. It gives the Congress anywhere between 145 and 160 seats, as against the BJP in the range of 135-150 seats for the party and 165-185 seats including its NDA allies.

The study projects the Third Front bagging 110-130 seats with the Left parties in a 30-40 seat band as against 25-35 seats for the BSP, which it predicts to be emerging as the single-largest party in Uttar Pradesh. Interestingly, it said the Fourth Front could get 25-35 seats, while it includes the BJD in others with a tally of 20-30 seats.

The India TV-C-Voter exit poll projections show the UPA with 189-201 seats. It gives the Congress 149-155, the DMK between 9 and 13, the NCP 12-16 and the Trinamool between 12 and 16.

The poll shows the BJP-led Front getting between 183 and 195 seats. It includes the BJP (140-146), the JD (U) 17-21. The Third Front is projected to bag between 105 and 121 seats. The break-up shows the Left parties in the range of 31-37 seats, the BSP (24-30), the AIADMK (23-29), the TDP/TRS (13-19) and the BJD (6-8). The poll gives the Praja Rajyam Party anywhere between zero to four seats.

LINK>http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/14/stories/2009051457840100.htm

Forget about the exit polls what is your prediction on this?

Both NDA and UPA will fall short of about 50 to 70 from majority. For congress the options are to go with SP + Left with some other party support. That seems the most possible way for Congress coming back to power.

If UPA does worst and have difference with NDA of about 50 seats, I guess NDA with mayawati will form the government. Alternatively Jaylatila and/or Naidu and/or Naveen supporting NDA.

My guess is that NDA will touch about 230 seats and chances of it forming the government are very high. 60% chances.

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A Proud Indian Canadian

I am not even sure if an NDA really exists except in the minds of BJP. All thier 'partners' are opportunistic and will switch loyalty anytime.

But thats the beauty of India - it still functions as is - no matter who is the PM or ruling coalition...

1 more day to go for the suspense to end...
Wonder why they didnt have counting the same day as the voting ended???
To keep the Satta bazaar busy???

Satta (gambling) of a 'different' kind..

http://election.rediff.com/report/2009/may/14/loksabhapoll-predict-lok-sabha-results-and-win-25-lakh.htm




Hiren

That is an interesting statement. All the regional political parties are with loosely coupled interfaces - they can fit anywhere.

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A Proud Indian Canadian