Thanks Fido. I completely agree with you.


"Once again home ownership will be a privilege, not a right".

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

I’m sticking to my prediction that the lowest real estate values in a perhaps a decade will be here with the Spring flowers. Once vendors (tens of thousands of them) who held out for a better market understand it’s actually worse, many will dump in desperation. At the same time mortgage rates will be very cheap (but only for the well-qualified, with lots of down payment cash), boosting affordability levels.

Still, there will be no return to the market conditions of the last few years. This is a new (old) world of 20% downpayments, sane loan-to-value ratios and stricter debt servicing ratios. Once again home ownership will be a privilege, not a right. The notion of ‘starter home’ will make a comeback and once real estate values hit the floor (I’m guessing in 2010), the climb back will be measured, slow and even.

Quote:

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Originally posted by Fido

Its no rocket science but common sense ...

Depression is setting in which means a slowing economy - less money , lesser jobs , more mortgage defaults and less demand ..... all these translate into falling property prices . People who are holding their property now from selling , will come out when homes from mortgage defaulters join the market worsening the situation .

But realtors would deny this and say ' the best time is now ' for understandable reasons from their stand point ... .... I presume there should be a drastic variance in prices between now and summers 2009 which shall set the pace for prices over next 1-2 years till recession ends .

Those who hold on to their cash now , can buy more when prices are down ... Cash is King .

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Read about spin by the National Association of Realtors (article on CNN) -


As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, he's abandoned what he calls the 'positive spin.'


(Money Magazine) -- Q. Were you wrong to be so bullish?

A. I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren't good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.

Q. The NAR's latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?

A. My views are quite different now. I'm pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we'll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we've still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It'll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.

Q. Any regrets?

A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/05/real_estate/Lereah.moneymag/index.htm

Realtor foresees dip in Toronto

The average price of a house in Canada is likely to decline by 3 per cent this year as sales activity continues to cool, according to Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

The number of residential resales is forecast to decline 3.5 per cent across Canada, though the national realty firm expects there will still be local warm spots.

Not among them is Toronto, however, where a 4 per cent pullback is forecast for 2009, to an average house price of $364,800.

Yesterday's forecast follows a "significant reset" in 2008 – which Royal LePage had predicted 12 months ago would see a 3.5 per cent average increase across Canada.

Preliminary numbers now show a 1.1 per cent decline.

Royal LePage says this was an "emotional reaction to recent economic and political instability" and expects a calmer atmosphere, along with federal stimuli and low mortgage rates, "to cause activity to pick up in the latter half of 2009."

Overall, the realtor foresees "only modest price and unit sales corrections" – not a U.S.-styled crash.

Canada's average house price is forecast to dip to $295,000, down from $304,000 in 2008 and a peak $307,265 in 2007. Cities priced below the national average may see modest 2009 hikes.

The steepest price decline – 9 per cent – is foreseen for Vancouver.

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/562731

I have been viewing the GTA Property channel on TV for the past 3 months .... I am surprised to find that detatched / semi detatched homes are advertised at an asking price of 220K+ ... which was unseen 3 months back .... And this is Jan 2009 ... what happens by July ?? ......... My gut feel is that a reasonable 3 BR + 1 BR finished separate entrance basement (semi /detatched) would be available for 200K and that also will be a buyer's liberty .

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Fido.

Hi

I am thinking of buying house in summer 2009 , i need good sources to find the real market value.

hi FIDO: is it possible to send me the link of TV channel that you are talking about.

also, please advise me if u know any good sources beside MLS to check current market value

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'Some goals are so worthy, it's glorious even to fail.' (Param Vir Chakra awardee Lt. Manoj Pandey)

It's not different here. It's (CREB/TREB/EREB/CHMC/Realtors/Mortgage broker/ Bank economist/govt./remax/royal lepage/CIR) their job to make ‘positive spin.' How can they say “It’s not a right time to buy and hold the money till 2010".

It's up to buyers and sellers when they want expert’s services. These experts are not your financial baby sitter, they are simple sales man and they are doing their job. If you like to buy new TV Sales man/woman doesn’t care you can pay or not or how much credit debt you have. Their job is to push TV out of shop. But it’s up to buyer when he /she like to buy TV and what kind. Now days things are pretty simple, you can do all the research yourself and just go and make a deal except RE. They like to hide all the information/data. "Only your REALTOR can provide"

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http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090107.wmarkets0107/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business

A renewed sense of gloom overtook North American stock markets Wednesday, with the worst U.S job losses in nearly 60 years and word of a $1-trillion (U.S.) budget deficit reminding investors that there's nothing magical about starting a new calendar year.

And those weren't the only concerns – Intel Corp. surprised the markets by disclosing that 2008 revenue would likely fall by 23 per cent from 2007 levels. Time Warner said it would take a $25-billion impairment charge. India's Satyam Computer Services Ltd. said its balance sheet was overstated by $1-billion. Alcoa said it would lay off 13,500 workers and cut capital spending in half.


http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/01/07/illinois.realestate.death/index.html

Real estate power broker dead of apparent suicide

The death comes amid great turmoil in the country's real estate industry. In his role as chairman of the Realtors Commercial Alliance Committee, Good commented on tough conditions last month at a business conference.


Calgary Data:

SFH
end of Dec,
Avg = $417,398
Median = $380,000
Jan 1 to 6 (48 sales)
Avg = $376,098 (down $41K from Dec)
Median = $346,750 (down $33K from Dec)

I notice listings are starting to rise.

Quote:

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Originally posted by newboyo

Read about spin by the National Association of Realtors (article on CNN) -


As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, he's abandoned what he calls the 'positive spin.'


(Money Magazine) -- Q. Were you wrong to be so bullish?

A. I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren't good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.

Q. The NAR's latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?

A. My views are quite different now. I'm pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we'll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we've still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It'll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.

Q. Any regrets?

A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/05/real_estate/Lereah.moneymag/index.htm</font>

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