Posted on: 16-11-06 08:55:29
Times of India>>>
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/We_wont_let_India_overtake_us_China/articleshow/460297.cms
China has dismissed global forecasts that a democratic India will overtake the Communist giant on the economic front by 2020, saying those predictions lacked 'statistical evidence.'
\"There is a prevailing belief in the international community that India will overtake China by 2020. This statement lacks statistical evidence,\" Secretary-General of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), Wang Jinzhen said.
\"Both are moving towards prosperity. Reform and opening up in China began in 1978 which prompted rapid economic growth. India also launched reform measures in 1991, which followed a policy of liberalisation and globalisation,\" he said.
\"China and India are following two very different development models,\" Jinzhen said when asked to comment on the findings of the World Economic Forum 2006 global competitiveness rankings, which placed China 11 places behind India.
Reacting to some global experts who likened China and India to the tortoise and the hare in Aesop's famous fable, Jinzhen said \"To use the analogy of the race between the tortoise and the hare for the competition between China and India is fantastic.\"
\"Only when the hare (China) naps does the tortoise (India) overtake the hare. China will never 'nap' in the process of its economic development,\" he told 'People's Daily,' the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) in a recent interview ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to India.
Last year, China's GDP was the fourth largest in the world and India also ranked in the top ten. Both China and India are experiencing rapid economic development and expect a bright future. This has attracted worldwide attention, Wei acknowledged.
\"It doesn't matter whether China surpasses India. The key issue is how to keep China on a path of sound development, with long-term, rapid and sustainable growth,\" the senior Chinese trade expert said.
China has dismissed global forecasts that a democratic India will overtake the Communist giant on the economic front by 2020, saying those predictions lacked 'statistical evidence.'
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Bala
And he didn't provided any statistical evidence to prove his claims also!
However their effort to keep pride for their country and hard efforts to make every attempt to keep their top position are appreciable. This is what lacking in (most of) Indian Politicians (except few like Modi)
About 4 years ago I saw similar article where a Chinese official was rejecting the world's view that China is weak in English. He proudly claim that Chinese are better in English than Indians. What a claim!!
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A Proud Indian Canadian
Quote:
Originally posted by Garvo Gujarati
And he didn't provided any statistical evidence to prove his claims also!
However their effort to keep pride for their country and hard efforts to make every attempt to keep their top position are appreciable. This is what lacking in (most of) Indian Politicians (except few like Modi)
About 4 years ago I saw similar article where a Chinese official was rejecting the world's view that China is weak in English. He proudly claim that Chinese are better in English than Indians. What a claim!!
And Russell Peters can provide the best evidence for their English !!!!!!
Even with their limited English speaking capability the Chinese are equally if not more sucessfull as some Desis in Canada.
The moral of the story ?
English can get you upto a certain point after that you need to be street smart.
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You know you are a desi when ........ You spew forth the virtues of India, but don't want to live there...............You've never had a tanning salon membership
Looking at the current growth rates of both countries it is impossible for India to overtake china by 2020 . In most part of last decade China grew by a whopping 14% in real terms , while the highest India achieved is just over 8%. The fact is chinese economy has been growing at a double digit rate for most of the last 20-25 yrs and there is no sign of any cooling off. Unless India achieves a growth rate of atleast 4 percentage points for atleast 10 years in the next 13 years remaining for 2020, we will not be able to even compare with China economically.
It is also true that both India and China are different growth path. While Chinese economy is more secondary( manufacturing) Indian economy is more tertiary nature which is service oriented. Both are focussing on trade based on international demand. Both plans have its own merits and demerits. For example China is now on a path which was previously used by Japan, and other asian contries which was driven by international- ( US) demand for reduction in cost of manufacturing, which gives a long term base . This is also more immune to short term setbacks eg. SARS, poor communication skill because of language use etc. However value addition is a long way off. A service based economy is more prone to short term setbacks, eg. Tourism will stop if ther is a healthscare or law and order problem, but is more value added and superior interms newer business factors such as environment, information technology.
My observation is India has tried and failed to drive exports based on manufacturing in the past decades ,due to bottlenecks in manufacturing and infrastructure, failure of successive governments to create markets for produce through bilateral ,multilateral forums. Our newer businesses grew in the last two decades only due to the fact that there was not much inputs/ support required from Government agencies and less dependence on infrastructure of high investment nature.
Very well said Swampghost.
I've never been to China, but from everything I've read, the Chinese are way ahead in terms of infrastructure. Because of the government structure, there are fewer bottlenecks and the population growth has been checked (regardless of how dicatatorial the measures). Also, let's not forget that India does not even come close to China in terms of military spending and power. Military might does play are role in economics too, it always has for the US.
China's ambitions are true global domination, in India's case, its more like something on a wishlist. The perception also is that China pursues its ambitions very aggressively, whereas India is much more tamer.
Whether we as desis like it or not, overall, China is much more in control of its environment. India seems to be more at the mercy of the current enviornmental, and there seems to be no solid contigency plans for when the services sector either slows down OR is seriously competed for by other countries like China.
India does have its own distinct advantages over China and democracy is definately one of them. The reality is that in the next few years, as the Chinese population opens their eyes to the richness of a true democracy, there will be civil unrest and much more resistance to government imposed rules and the govt. will have a tough time dealing with the resistance. There will be a point where they won't be able to roll in the tanks anymore to suppress dissent. I see this happening within the next 10 years, or even earlier, thanks to the Internet. How China deals with this will determine its overall direction, I'm sure they're already planning for this.
But unless there are some major paradigm shifts in the global economy in India's favor, I don't see how India can overtake China by 2020. Despite all my hopes and wishes.
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Are you there?
I would still say we (India) have a chance to catch up with China. Looking into the growth drivers, any country's GDP is based on three factors Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services. If you see all the developed countries they are more service oriented economies, some manufacturing and less agriculture. Developing countries have more manufacturing oriented than agriculture and service. While if you see underdeveloped countries they are more towards agriculture, some manufacturing and very less service.
Talking about India and China here India caters to service markets in developed countries which gives best bang for the buck or value add in terms of foreign exchange. In case of China it is into manufacturing goods trying to cut costs... unless they start moving into high end manufacturing like Japan did example Toyoto and Honda (creating and building brands where people pay higher premiums for quality). Currently South Korea is in this path with Samsung, LG and Hyndai (Keep a watch Hyndai is the only company which offers 10 yr/100,000 miles warranty on its cars) This would increase quality in the long run. Taiwan also following similar paths which started contract manufacturing supplying to semiconductor industry, now manufactures 80% of all computer parts/laptops sold in North America. The laptops are built for specifications and finally the brand is stamped as Dell or HP mostly they come out of the same assembly line.
Now coming to the infrastructure, yes I accept India sucks and China rocks. Looking at the pictures of Shangai, number of high raises being built there is no comparison. The highways are laid between major cities and ports to make logistics simpler. Wherein India from a article posted in Economist says that it takes 12 days for a truck to go to Mumbai from Calcutta. That's one of the few reasons other than red tape why India is not succesful in being competitive when it comes to manufacturing of goods. China rules in making way to foreign direct investment to flow in smoothly by reducing barriers and restrictions. Think about Volkswagen trying to set up shop in Vizag...
Lastly there are a couple of things I need to point out , China for the betterment of its trade is controlling its foreign exchange rates to keep the costs of its products low. Where at some point they need to make it free floating. They have a hugh pile of foreign reserves in US dollars which is not good... (remeber the Asian crisis in 1997 - South Korea, Indonesia, etc.). India is ahead of the game with a free floating currency and its foreign reserves are held as a basket of currencies. So there are still chances...
